A stationary frontal system brings intense rains to northeastern Mexico while central and southern states brace for heavy showers; extreme heat and gusty winds heighten hazards nationwide.
Today, an unseasonal frontal system parked over northeastern Mexico is colliding with the subtropical jet stream and a low-pressure trough, unleashing very heavy to sometimes intense rainfall across the region. Coahuila, Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí can expect rainfall totals of 75 to 150 mm, while Tamaulipas will see 50 to 75 mm. Isolated showers will drift into northern Chihuahua. Meanwhile, abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, combined with atmospheric instability and additional low-pressure troughs, will produce heavy to very heavy rains in central and western states, particularly Zacatecas, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato. Hot to very hot conditions will prevail nationwide under an anticyclonic circulation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, with heat-wave warnings in dozens of states from Sinaloa to Yucatán.
Heavy to Intense Rainfall Risks
Very heavy to intense rainfall of 75–150 mm today in Coahuila, Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí risks localized flooding, landslides and urban ponding. Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato will see 50–75 mm, while eastern Jalisco, Michoacán, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, the State of Mexico, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas can expect 25–50 mm. Lesser showers (5–25 mm) are likely in Durango, Colima, Mexico City, Tlaxcala and Veracruz; and isolated drizzles (0.1–5 mm) in Chihuahua, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
Heat-Wave and High Temperatures
Under stagnant high pressure aloft, much of Mexico will endure scorching afternoons. Temperatures reaching 40–45 °C are forecast in the Baja California peninsula, Sonora, Sinaloa, parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, the State of Mexico, Puebla, Morelos, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán. Another belt of 35–40 °C will bake Nuevo León, Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo and Quintana Roo, while Mexico City and Tlaxcala should top out at 30–35 °C. Early-morning lows may dip below freezing (–5 to 0 °C) in the high mountains of Durango and hover around 0–5 °C in Chihuahua’s peaks.
Hazardous Winds and Wildfire Threat
Winds of 20–30 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h in northern and central states—including Tamaulipas, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas and Aguascalientes—will whip up dust storms in Chihuahua and Durango. Strong gusts across western and southern regions (Sonora through Chiapas, plus Querétaro, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Puebla and Quintana Roo) may fan wildfires where vegetation is dry. Coastal breeze gusts reaching 50–70 km/h in the Gulf states and 30–50 km/h elsewhere could overturn unsecured billboards and bring down weak tree limbs. Offshore, waves will rise to 1.5–2.5 m along the Pacific coasts of Baja California, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas.
Regional Outlook
– Valley of Mexico: Partly cloudy start with morning mildness turning cool in Toluca’s highlands. Afternoon cloud build-up will bring heavy rain to the State of Mexico and scattered storms in Mexico City, with lightning and possible hail. Mexico City: 15–17 °C low, 30–32 °C high. Toluca: 11–13 °C low, 26–28 °C high.
– Baja California Peninsula: Morning fog on the Pacific coast; otherwise sunny and hot. Western coastal fog dissipates by late morning. Gusty west-northwest winds (30–50 km/h) may stir dust in parts of the peninsula.
– North Pacific: Cool mornings in Sonora’s highlands give way to hot afternoons in Sinaloa. Westerly winds gusting to 50 km/h will generate dust in both states.
– Central Pacific: Morning coolness precedes afternoon heavy showers in eastern Jalisco and Michoacán—risking flash floods and landslides—and lighter storms in Colima. Hot with gusty westerlies.
– South Pacific: Warm, partly cloudy morning; afternoon storms in Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas with thunder, hail and flood potential. Variable winds could gust to 60 km/h.
– Gulf of Mexico: Morning mildness turns to very heavy rain in Tamaulipas accompanied by lightning and hail, raising river levels. Isolated showers in Tabasco. Strong gusts up to 70 km/h.
– Yucatán Peninsula: Clear morning skies give way to scattered afternoon showers. Highs in the low 40s, gusty afternoon winds.
– Northern Tablelands: Cool start with frost in Durango’s mountains; afternoon heavy to very heavy rains in Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas and Aguascalientes, along with dust storms.
– Central Mesa: Morning cool-to-mild skies; afternoon very heavy downpours in Guanajuato and heavy rains in Querétaro, Hidalgo, Morelos and Puebla, with thunderstorms and hail.
Recorded Extremes
In the past 24 hours, the heaviest rainfall was 21 mm in Tlalnepantla de Baz (Chiconautla 2), State of Mexico; 18 mm in Montemorelos, Nuevo León; and 17 mm in San Cristóbal de las Casas, Chiapas. Hottest readings reached 43.7 °C in Rioverde, SLP; 42.6 °C in Campeche; and 42.0 °C in Coatzacoalcos. The coldest low was 10.3 °C in Toluca.