The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has recently published a concerning analysis, raising alarms about potential constitutional reforms in Mexico that could jeopardize the country’s democratic foundations. The article, titled “Mexico Flirts with Dictatorship,” written by journalist Mary Anastasia O’Grady, draws parallels between Mexico’s current political trajectory and the authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, where popular leaders dismantled institutional checks to consolidate power.
O’Grady’s article emphasizes the dangers of elected leaders who, bolstered by their popularity, undermine the rights of political minorities and erode institutional safeguards designed to limit executive power. She argues that such actions have historically led to the establishment of police states, where freedoms are severely restricted. The journalist notes that the ongoing political developments in Mexico are causing unease among those who value the country’s democratic integrity.
With the arrival of September, the start of a new legislative session in the Congress of the Union looms large, where the ruling party, Morena, is poised to secure a majority. This majority could enable President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) to push through significant reforms that have been a central part of his agenda but have so far been constrained by existing institutional checks.
O’Grady points out that even though Claudia Sheinbaum has won the presidential elections, she will not assume office until October 1. However, the new legislators will be sworn in on September 1, potentially giving AMLO a 30-day window to exert unprecedented influence. The situation could be further intensified if the National Electoral Institute (INE) and the Electoral Tribunal confirm that Morena and its allies have obtained a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. This majority could allow AMLO to negotiate the few remaining votes needed to achieve a supermajority, enabling sweeping constitutional changes.
In her analysis, O’Grady warns of a “radical scenario” where AMLO might use his final months in office to exact revenge on institutions that have hindered his efforts to centralize power. She suggests that AMLO’s limited power could drive him to make a last-ditch effort to weaken the “neoliberals” who advocate for the rule of law.
Among the 20 constitutional reform initiatives highlighted by O’Grady, the Judicial Reform stands out as particularly damaging. This reform aims to remove thousands of sitting judges and magistrates, including 11 ministers of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN). The proposed changes would allow the legislature, controlled by Morena, and the Executive Branch to nominate candidates for the SCJN who would be subject to a “political test of fire,” with academic credentials and judicial experience taking a backseat.
O’Grady concludes by noting that future candidates for the Court may be elected by popular vote. However, she raises concerns that the majority of the Mexican electorate lacks sufficient knowledge of jurisprudence, making it possible for the vote to be manipulated by various interest groups, including organized crime, government officials, and even businessmen.