The semiconductor industry in Mexico faces a limited window to secure $10 billion in investments as the government rolls out its Master Plan 2024–2030 and counters regional incentives.
Mexican authorities already see a narrow chance to land $10 billion in semiconductor investments. The government rolled out the “Master Plan for the Development of the Semiconductor Industry in Mexico 2024–2030” late last year. It warns that relocation operations and the capital that comes with them will happen within roughly a five-year span. If Mexico does not create the right conditions now, companies will look elsewhere once that window closes.
The Master Plan, developed jointly with private sector leaders, academic experts, and U.S. officials, stresses how time-sensitive this opportunity is. U.S. policy is driving a reconfiguration of the global semiconductor chain, favoring onshore production in North America. This shift may last no more than five years. If Mexico does not act quickly, other regions will capture the investments needed to expand wafer manufacturing, packaging, testing, and design operations.
That short window matches the current federal administration under President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. Everything the Mexican government does—or fails to do—during her six-year term could determine whether the country becomes a leading semiconductor hub or misses out. The document underlines that most actions in the plan must be executable within three to five years: once companies decide to relocate outside leading countries, the momentum will quickly move beyond Mexico’s reach.
In early February 2025, Ernestina Godoy Ramos, Mexico’s Attorney General, announced the “Kutsari” program during a morning briefing. She said this initiative will join the Master Plan’s goals by promoting scientific and technological development through the Mexican Institute of Industrial Property and other agencies. This blend of public- and private-sector efforts aims to prepare local talent, improve infrastructure, and streamline regulations so that companies feel confident relocating to Mexico rather than Asia or Europe.
The Ministry of Economy’s transparency office made the urgency clear in documents obtained by reporters. They note that disruptions in the global semiconductor supply chain created Mexico’s chance to step in. But that same disruption will settle within a few years. “The opportunity is limited and actions require a sense of urgency,” the report states. It also stresses that most actions must occur within a three- to five-year horizon, by the time relocation peaks. If Mexico waits any longer, the investments—ranging from $300 million to $1 billion per package test assembly (PTA) site—will flow to other regions for at least a decade.
Asian countries have already rolled out incentive packages that deliver concrete investments in assembly, test, and packaging (ATP). The Master Plan warns those incentives are luring investments away from Mexico unless policymakers act within the next one to two years. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is assessing Mexico’s proposals now. That assessment will help refine tax breaks, subsidies, and infrastructure support needed to compete with Asia’s incentives.
Mexico still has a strong case to grow in ATP. The document notes that the country can build on its existing electronics, communications, and automotive industries to produce chips for global customers. In fact, exports in 2024 grew by 42 percent, according to a tweet by former Foreign Affairs Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, who also said Mexico was on track to double national design and production capacity. His message underscored the momentum in local talent and firms, but also hinted at how quickly global players could pivot if conditions in Mexico lag behind.
Looking ahead, the Master Plan sets out ambitious goals for the next five years. It calls for doubling exports and employment in Mexico’s semiconductor sector. It also aims to double and diversify design activity, relocate ATP operations worth more than $10 billion, and begin sourcing raw materials—minerals and chemicals—from within Mexico to strengthen North America’s supply chain. Hitting those targets would require coordinated efforts across federal, state, and municipal governments to upgrade roads, power grids, and broadband networks in key states such as Chihuahua, Jalisco, and Sonora.
The plan’s authors note that increasing supply chain complexity in Mexico could take more than ten years. Still, they insist that the most critical actions must launch in the first few years. By November 12, 2024, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard publicly backed the plan, pledging support during a joint Mexico–United States Semiconductor Collaboration Forum. He said the government aimed to double the semiconductor industry’s size by the end of President Sheinbaum’s term, leveraging U.S. interest in reshoring production.
Analysts say Mexico’s low labor costs and proximity to U.S. customers give it an edge. But they also stress that governments in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore are already offering firms generous tax breaks and facility subsidies. If Mexico cannot match or exceed those offers, companies will relocate elsewhere. That would mean lost jobs, reduced export revenues, and slower economic growth.
Despite those headwinds, Mexico has a clear path forward. By aligning federal incentives with state-level industrial parks and free-trade zones, the country could lure ATP operations now on the fence. The government can also speed up environmental permits and cut red tape for infrastructure projects. Attracting raw-material producers—lithium, silicon, and specialty chemicals—would further strengthen the country’s position. Local universities and research centers need funding to train engineers and technicians. All those steps must happen fast, within President Sheinbaum’s administration.
If everything falls into place, Mexico could become a major ATP hub, complementing wafer fabs being built in Arizona and Ohio. That would bring thousands of jobs, boost regional economies, and reduce North America’s reliance on Asia. But if political debates, budget disputes, or regulatory delays stall the Master Plan, the window will close. Global chipmakers will move on to the next best offer—a reality this plan emphasizes as urgent.
For now, the ball is in Mexico’s court. Officials must prove they can move swiftly, align incentives, and deliver results. The semiconductor industry in Mexico stands at a crossroads. Succeeding means billions of dollars in new investments and thousands of high-tech jobs. Missing the chance could mean waiting another decade before similar capital flows return.
