New research from UNAM reveals Mexico has warmed by 1.8 °C since pre-industrial times—faster than the global average—prompting experts to call for climate action integrated into national development policy.
Mexico is heating up at an alarming rate, with temperatures rising faster than the global average, according to researchers at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). From pre-industrial times through 2024, Mexico’s average temperature has climbed by 1.8 °C—well above the planet’s overall increase of roughly 1.5 °C. Since 1975, however, Mexico has warmed at a rate of 3.2 °C per century, compared with the global pace of about 2 °C per century. These findings underscore the urgent need to reassess both global warming projections and the nation’s preparedness for an accelerating climate crisis.
The revelations came during the working panels of “Climate Change in Mexico: Trends, Risks, and Policies,” part of the lead-up to the 2025 Summit of Rectors of Mexican Universities for Climate Action. Francisco Estrada Porrúa, head of UNAM’s Climate Change Research Program, cautioned that the past 18 months of steady temperature increases may signal either an acceleration of global warming or an underestimation of the planet’s capacity to balance its temperature. “We have warmed faster than the global average, and the rate of warming is greater,” he warned.
The year 2024 set a grim new record: the first time the world exceeded a combined 1.5 °C rise above pre-industrial levels. Mexico, however, has stood above that threshold since mid-2023. Between 2016 and 2024, five of Mexico’s warmest years have all exceeded the 1.5 °C mark. In 2024 alone, the country recorded an average temperature increase of 2.14 °C—0.4 °C higher than in 2023. These figures directly contravene the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C, ideally capping the increase at 1.5 °C.
Despite expectations of a cooling effect following the El Niño and La Niña cycles, Mexico has seen no relief. “Starting in 2023, global temperatures rose above 1.5 °C, and we haven’t observed the expected downturn,” Estrada Porrúa noted. This persistence of record warmth even through natural climate oscillations highlights the growing dominance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Mexico’s exposure to extreme weather events is nothing new, but climate change is magnifying both their frequency and intensity. In April 2021, a historic drought drained reservoirs nationwide, reducing Lake Cuitzeo in Michoacán to arid wasteland. Just months later, an unusually fierce rainy season inundated large swaths of the State of Mexico, Jalisco, and Chihuahua, while the Tula River in Hidalgo burst its banks, causing widespread devastation and claiming dozens of lives.
Addressing this mounting threat, Enrique Provencio Durazo, head of UNAM’s Development Studies Program, urged that climate action be woven into Mexico’s broader development strategy. “The climate strategy will be more viable if managed as part of a vision of progress and not solely through environmental justice,” he said. Durazo emphasized the importance of substantial investments in mitigation measures—such as achieving zero deforestation in line with Paris Agreement targets—and the need for robust political support and funding to ensure their success.
Spring 2025 in Mexico has already shown a taste of the heat to come. During early April, at least 21 states recorded daytime highs between 35 °C and 45 °C, pushing infrastructure, agriculture, and public health systems to their limits. Naxhelli Ruiz Rivera, chair of the University Seminar on Socio-Environmental Risks at UNAM’s Institute of Geography, stressed that climate-related social threats are inseparable from social rights. “Reducing these risks depends on addressing the structures of opportunity, not just tallying assets lost,” she argued, highlighting the need for an inclusive approach that protects vulnerable communities.
Public concern about the environmental crisis is high: 93 % of Mexicans surveyed by the European Investment Bank demand stricter government measures to curb climate change. Water scarcity already looms large in daily life. Half of those surveyed report experiencing water restrictions, and in August 2022, cuts affected 12 municipalities in Mexico City. In northern regions, water shortages triggered neighborhood riots in July of the same year, underscoring the human toll of dwindling resources.
Looking ahead, three-quarters of Mexicans believe they may eventually need to migrate—either to other regions within the country or abroad—due to the compounding effects of climate change. As Mexico confronts warming at an unprecedented pace, experts warn that without bold, coordinated policy action, the nation’s most vulnerable citizens will bear the brunt of an accelerating climate emergency.
