Mexico and the United States reached a last-minute agreement on Monday to partially resolve Mexico’s growing Rio Grande water debt, bringing relief to South Texas farmers and avoiding the threat of U.S. trade retaliation. The deal requires Mexico to immediately transfer 56,750 acre-feet of water from its share of the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs to the U.S., along with up to 420,000 acre-feet in additional deliveries between May and October 2025.
The agreement comes as the five-year cycle of the 1944 Water Treaty approaches its deadline in late October, with Mexico trailing far behind its required deliveries. The total deficit stood at over 1 million acre-feet—roughly the equivalent of four years’ worth of treaty obligations—when talks resumed earlier this month. Although this new pact won’t eliminate the debt entirely, U.S. officials say it will supply badly needed irrigation for Texas growers in the Rio Grande Valley and stabilize relations between the two countries during a particularly dry season.
Negotiated through the International Boundary and Water Commission, the deal expands U.S. access to water from six Mexican tributaries and introduces flexibility for Mexico to draw from alternative sources such as the Río San Juan and Río Álamo if hydrological conditions allow. Both governments framed the agreement as a continuation of the provisions outlined in Minute 331, a recent addition to the long-standing treaty framework.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce praised the outcome as a win for both countries, saying it protects American farmers while preserving the structure of the 1944 treaty. Meanwhile, in Mexico, the Foreign Ministry and National Water Commission emphasized the importance of balancing treaty compliance with protecting water supplies for more than a dozen northern Mexican cities that also depend on the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs. Officials noted that additional releases would be carefully monitored to avoid domestic shortages and that the flexibility provisions in the new agreement would help mitigate potential impacts on Mexican agriculture.
The 1944 treaty requires Mexico to deliver an average of 350,000 acre-feet of water annually to the U.S. from six tributaries of the Rio Grande, totaling 1.75 million acre-feet every five years. While Mexico is allowed to fall short in any given year so long as it makes up the difference by the end of the cycle, the increasing frequency and severity of droughts in northern Mexico have made that flexibility a growing point of tension.
With time running out, pressure from Texas officials and farmers intensified in recent months. President Donald Trump, seeking reelection, had recently threatened tariffs and a review of Mexico’s USMCA benefits if the water debt remained unresolved. Texas lawmakers, particularly from the Rio Grande Valley, applauded the new agreement. Representative Monica De La Cruz described it as a critical first step, while Senator John Cornyn called it a long-overdue resolution and vowed to ensure future compliance. The Texas Farm Bureau also welcomed the deal but noted that full agricultural recovery would take time.
In recent years, South Texas farmers have suffered extensive crop losses as water shortages disrupted production of citrus, sugarcane, and vegetables. Local officials estimate that 40 percent of previous Mexican deliveries were lost to evaporation or seepage due to outdated infrastructure. Many irrigation canals in the region are now scheduled to reopen in mid-May, just in time to salvage part of the growing season.
While the deal brings immediate benefits, environmental groups and water experts on both sides of the border are warning that a more sustainable, climate-resilient solution is still needed. With reservoirs like La Boquilla hovering at critically low levels—just 14 percent of capacity—calls are growing louder for a long-term overhaul of how water-sharing is managed in a hotter, drier future.
Under the terms of the agreement, verified monthly water deliveries will be published by the IBWC, with a formal review meeting planned for July. If any water remains outstanding by the end of the cycle in October, that deficit will carry over into the next five-year term. U.S. lawmakers, however, have signaled that future shortfalls may trigger serious consequences unless structural changes are made.
Though this deal marks a critical breakthrough in cross-border diplomacy, it may prove to be only a temporary fix. Whether Mexico can deliver on its promises will depend not only on political will but also on rainfall, reservoir levels, and a treaty system many believe is overdue for reform.