Passenger traffic between Mexico and Canada topped 5.3 million in 2024—surpassing pre-pandemic numbers for the first time—driven by easing entry rules, promotional efforts, and favorable currency trends.
Passenger air traffic between Mexico and Canada has not only fully recovered from the disruptions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic but has also exceeded pre-pandemic volumes for the first time in four years. Data released by the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) show that, by the end of 2024, a total of 5.3 million passengers had flown between the two countries, marking a 10.41 percent increase over the 4.8 million travelers recorded in 2019. Flights operated on these routes also rebounded strongly, with 33,000 departures—9.6 percent more than the 31,000 flights logged before the health emergency.
Industry experts attribute this robust recovery to a combination of evolving travel regulations, promotional efforts by major Canadian cities, and shifting passenger preferences following the easing of pandemic-era restrictions. “While Canada’s early entry measures and temporary suspension of electronic travel authorizations (eTA) for Mexicans slowed the initial rebound, those barriers have now lifted, and traffic is on a firm upswing,” said Carlos Torres, an airline industry specialist. Torres noted that the reinstatement of valid eTAs and the gradual rollback of entry requirements in early 2024 removed significant hurdles for Mexican travelers.
The upward momentum continued into 2025. In the first quarter alone, 2,536,000 passengers traveled between Mexico and Canada on 14,712 flights, representing year-over-year growth of 23.9 percent in passenger numbers and 19.7 percent in flight frequency. According to Torres, promotional campaigns by Canadian cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and Calgary have been instrumental in attracting Mexican tourists and business travelers alike.
Cancún remains a linchpin of Mexico’s international aviation network, contributing 29 percent of the country’s total air traffic. This strong performance extends beyond Cancún; Puerto Vallarta Airport welcomed 430 flights in a single week earlier this spring, underscoring the growing appeal of Mexico’s Pacific coast destinations.
Despite the overall boom in cross-border traffic, capacity constraints remain a challenge. On the Mexican side, Aeroméxico is currently the sole carrier operating flights to Canada. Canadian airlines—led by Air Canada, WestJet, and Sunwing—serve the Mexican market, but Torres emphasizes the need for expanded seat availability: “With only two to three daily frequencies to major hubs like Toronto and Vancouver, there’s ample room for larger aircraft and increased flight numbers to meet rising demand.”
Cost pressures have also become a point of concern. Seasonal migrant workers—who account for 30 to 40 percent of traffic on these routes—have historically filled many seats, but Torres argues that airlines must bolster leisure and business travel to achieve healthier load factors. He highlighted that limited route options have driven up fares by 20 to 25 percent over the past eight months. “A one-way ticket to Montreal without checked baggage can run between 14,000 and 16,000 pesos, which is steep compared to some European routes,” he noted.
Conversely, favorable currency dynamics have worked in Mexico’s favor. Fernando Gómez, another seasoned industry analyst, pointed out that the Canadian dollar’s relative weakness against the peso—when compared to the U.S. dollar—has made travel to Mexico more affordable for Canadians. “The currency recovery has provided a timely boost, especially during the first quarter, when Canadians escape their cold winter for Mexico’s warmer climates,” Gómez explained, adding that agricultural suspensions during Canada’s off-season further drive demand for sun-seeking vacations.
Looking ahead, air traffic specialists forecast a continued shift in North American travel patterns. Passenger volumes between Mexico and the United States are expected to soften in 2025, potentially diverting more travelers toward Canada. Combined with the pent-up demand for international leisure travel and strategic route promotions, the Mexico-Canada corridor is poised for sustained growth throughout the year.
As competition among airlines intensifies, market observers anticipate new entrants and route expansions to capitalize on the burgeoning passenger flow. For now, the record-breaking figures signal not only a return to normalcy but also a new chapter of growth in North American air travel.