Meteorologists forecast very heavy rainfall across northern and southern Mexico on May 22, 2025, with wind gusts, dust storms, and lingering heat wave in western regions. Stay prepared for floods, landslides, and high temperatures.
Mexico’s meteorological agencies have issued widespread alerts for very heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high temperatures today, May 22, 2025, as multiple weather systems interact over the country. Low-pressure channels stretching across the Northern Mesa, Central Mesa, and the southeast, combined with atmospheric instability and a surge of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, will fuel very heavy rains in at least eight states. Meanwhile, a pronounced dry line over northern Mexico is triggering localized dust storms and wind gusts up to 70 km/h. An anticyclonic circulation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is maintaining hot to very hot conditions in the west, even as the heat wave eases in the eastern half of the nation, including the Valley of Mexico.
Forecasters warn that Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Morelos, the State of Mexico, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas can expect rainfall accumulations of 50 mm to 75 mm. Such intensity—classified as “very heavy” rain—raises the risk of urban flooding, overflowing drains and small-scale landslides in vulnerable areas. Heavy electrical activity and the possibility of hail may compound these hazards, especially in mountainous terrain and older drainage networks.
In adjacent regions—San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Mexico City and Veracruz—showers accompanied by 25 mm to 50 mm of rain are forecast. Coahuila, Durango, Colima and Tabasco will see more intermittent downpours of 5 mm to 25 mm, while Chihuahua, Nayarit, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo can expect isolated showers ranging from 0.1 mm to 5 mm.
Across the northwest and north-central highlands, a vigorous dry line will generate sustained winds of 20 km/h to 30 km/h, with gusts reaching 50 km/h to 70 km/h in Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas and Aguascalientes. Localized dust storms may reduce visibility and pose health risks, particularly for those with respiratory conditions. Strong gusts elsewhere—in Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Querétaro, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Puebla and Quintana Roo—could bring down trees and unsecured billboards.
A mid-level ridge aloft is driving a heat wave over western and southern Mexico. Coastal and inland areas of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca (coast), Chiapas (center and west), as well as Durango (west and south), Zacatecas (south and southwest), Morelos, Puebla (southwest), Campeche and the southwest corner of Yucatán, will experience maximums of 40 °C to 45 °C. Temperatures of 35 °C to 40 °C are likely in Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Querétaro, Hidalgo, the southwest State of Mexico, Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Tabasco and Quintana Roo. Aguascalientes and Guanajuato will warm to 30 °C to 35 °C.
Conversely, the long-running heat wave ends today across the northeast, east, center and southeast, including the Valley of Mexico, where cooling afternoon showers will replace peak-day highs. In Mexico City, minimum temperatures of 13 °C to 15 °C will give way to a maximum of 27 °C to 29 °C, alongside showers of 25 mm to 50 mm. Toluca is set to record lows of 8 °C to 10 °C and highs of 24 °C to 26 °C, with very heavy rain—up to 75 mm—in the State of Mexico.
At night and during the early morning hours, frost and sub-zero readings will be confined to the highest peaks of Durango (–5 °C to 0 °C). High-altitude zones in Chihuahua, Puebla and Tlaxcala will drop to 0 °C to 5 °C, potentially affecting sensitive crops and livestock.
Coastal regions will see moderate winds of 10 km/h to 20 km/h, gusting to 50 km/h, with waves 1.5 m to 2.5 m high along the Pacific coast from Baja California down through Chiapas, and on the western shores of the Baja California peninsula. Mariners and beachgoers should exercise caution, especially off Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca.
Regional Highlights:
- Baja California Peninsula: Morning fog on the Pacific coast will clear to partly cloudy skies, with no rain expected. Afternoon highs of 35 °C to 40 °C, with gusty northwest winds and possible dust storms.
- North Pacific: Sunny in Sonora at 40 °C, but showers possible in coastal Sinaloa as the heat wave persists. Winds gusting to 50 km/h may bring dust.
- Central Pacific: Very heavy rains in Michoacán could trigger landslides and road closures; Jalisco to see heavy rains and isolated hail; coastal Nayarit and Colima pockets of lightning storms.
- South Pacific: Guerrero, Oaxaca and western Chiapas can expect thunderstorms with possible hail and street flooding. Afternoon temperatures near 42 °C in flatlands.
- Gulf Coast: Tamaulipas endures very heavy showers, Veracruz heavy rain and lightning; Tabasco occasional downpours. Winds gusting to 50 km/h offshore.
- Yucatán Peninsula: Mostly dry, hot conditions in Campeche and Yucatán with isolated afternoon drizzles; Quintana Roo warm and breezy.
- Northern Mesa: Nuevo León under 50 mm+ rain warning; San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas and Aguascalientes heavy showers; cold frost pockets in Durango mountains.
- Central Mesa: Very heavy rain alert for Morelos; heavy storms in Hidalgo, Querétaro, Guanajuato, Tlaxcala and Puebla. Flash flooding risk in steep terrain.
Recent Extremes (Last 24 Hours):
- Rainfall: El Carmen (Nuevo León) 61 mm; Villagrán (Tamaulipas) 56 mm; Gustavo A. Madero (Mexico City) 35 mm.
- Highs: Choix (Sinaloa) 43.0 °C; Tuxtla Gutiérrez (Chiapas) 42.7 °C; Hermosillo (Sonora) 42.0 °C.
- Lows: Progreso (Yucatán) 12.4 °C; San Cristóbal de las Casas (Chiapas) 15.6 °C; Zacatecas (Zacatecas) 16.3 °C.
Outlook & Safety Tips:
Urban and rural residents alike should prepare for flooded streets, potential landslides in mountainous zones, and sudden dust storms in the north. Secure outdoor furniture and stay indoors during severe gusts. Drivers must reduce speed on slick roads and watch for fallen debris. Farmers at high elevations should protect sensitive crops from frost damage overnight. Beachgoers and small-craft operators should heed marine warnings for rough seas.
Stay tuned to local civil protection alerts and follow the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) advisories for updates throughout the day.