David Reyes, a supplier of tacos al pastor and carnitas in southern Mexico City, vividly recalls the days when he freely added cilantro to his tacos. “A good taco, in addition to a good tortilla and sauce, has to have a pinch of cilantro,” he says. Recently, however, the price of a four-kilogram bunch of this essential herb surged from 300 to nearly 600 pesos, forcing him to ration its use. “Even though the price has gone down, we can’t afford to give it away,” he comments.
Magaly López, a grocery store owner, stopped offering chayotes almost a month ago due to the skyrocketing prices. “It sells well, but when the price goes up, people don’t buy it, so we don’t sell it anymore,” she explains. The last price she remembers for chayotes was 120 pesos per kilogram. “And cilantro, I only sell the branches now. Although the price has decreased, it’s still expensive,” she adds, selling a bunch for 10 pesos.
These price hikes are not just abstract numbers; they are altering the eating habits of Mexicans. The prices of fruits and vegetables have been particularly hard-hit in the last twelve months, and especially so far in 2024. Many taco stands and restaurants have stopped ordering cilantro, and households are cutting back on traditional legumes such as avocado, chayote, and oranges due to their significant price increases.
In June, consumer inflation in Mexico stood at 4.98% annually, an increase from May and the highest since June 2023. This inflation is particularly pronounced in the non-core price index, which includes the most volatile market products.
“Non-core inflation can be significantly and rapidly influenced by external factors,” explains Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Grupo Base. “Recently, external factors, such as the instability of oil prices and some grains in the international market, have influenced non-core inflation in Mexico.”
Prolonged droughts and recent floods linked to climate change have disrupted trade, impacting end-users. According to an analysis by the National Alliance of Small Merchants in Mexico (Anpec), the products that increased the most in the last month were avocados, now over 83 pesos per kilogram, and oranges, almost 33 pesos per kilo.
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) data align with merchants’ observations. Over the last twelve months, the fruit and vegetable index in the non-core inflation component showed a sustained increase of 19.73%, with an average monthly rate of 1.51%. “In previous years, it was harvest season, and prices fell. Now, due to climate change, harvests have not met expectations, and prices are rising,” says Oliver Arroyo, professor at the School of Banking and Commerce (EBC).
A Chicken Broth Without Chicken or Vegetables
Chicken broth, once a comforting dish, has become a source of anxiety due to the rising costs of its ingredients. A kilo of chicken leg and thigh costs 62 pesos at the Central de Abasto in Mexico City, while a kilo of chayote ranges between 90 and 110 pesos, and other legumes like zucchini and carrots cost 25 and 21 pesos, respectively.
“You add chicken or vegetables, but not chayote,” says Margarita Morales, a vendor at a market in the Roma neighborhood. “It changes how people buy; you buy not what you want but what you can afford,” she reflects, noting that she stopped offering chayote because it was not selling.
Jesús Garza, a professor at the Business School and EGADE Business School of Tecnológico de Monterrey, highlights the detrimental impact of rising food prices on many Mexican families. “It is generating significant inflationary pressures. The inflation of fruits and vegetables has reached 20% annually. This is due to a water shortage affecting production, which consequently increases food costs for many families,” he explains.
During President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the accumulated inflation in the fruit and vegetable index is 43.90%. The three products showing the most significant increases over the last six years are chayote (388.5%), orange (260.7%), and guava (137.6%).
In contrast, processed foods can represent a more affordable, albeit less healthy, option. A box of chicken broth flavoring cubes costs 31 pesos and can make up to 10 liters of broth with the addition of some legumes or tortillas. “Now, it is what I can afford,” Morales concludes.
As inflation continues to rise, the impacts on traditional Mexican cuisine and everyday eating habits become increasingly apparent. The economic challenges faced by suppliers, vendors, and consumers underscore the broader implications of economic instability and climate change on food security.
